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Bobby

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Reply with quote  #1 
https://appraisalfoundation.sharefile.com/share?#/view/s305094efde84bbda


I tried posting, but the format is gibberish when copy & pasted.  Link above...
 

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Nomad

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Can't wait to curl up with a nice bottle of Pinot by the fire tonight and dig into this read. Thanks for planning my Friday night for me Bobby.
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Bobby

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Reply with quote  #3 
It's a short read.
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Meatloaf

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Reply with quote  #4 
I got my new USPAP book and all the pages are stuck together.... I think its a copy that Rusty returned or something.
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BChip

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USPAP 2018.....just some legal jargon added. Nothing to see here folks. Keep it moving.
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johnmbryant

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Reply with quote  #6 
Nothing significant has changed.  Enough re-wording to justify a new publication.
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Meatloaf

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Reply with quote  #7 
Yup... Just some re-organization.
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RubberStamp

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Reply with quote  #8 
How did they word the part about making automated value, no inspection needed with a no buy back guarantee being better accepted than the entirety of USPAP?
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We argue this: Meanwhile the agent's assistant just did 5 unofficial appraisal inspections they paired with a Zestimate and granted 90% LTV - all guaranteed no buy back.
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Meatloaf

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Quote:
Originally Posted by RubberStamp
How did they word the part about making automated value, no inspection needed with a no buy back guarantee being better accepted than the entirety of USPAP?


I personally think that USPAP or the States should require that anything related to "Value" must alsways reflect an opinion.  Since a machine cannot opine then an machine cannot develop a "value" thus necessitating the need for a name change from an AVM to an AEM thereby further differentiating the appraiser and the machine.

USPAP doesn't need to specifically define any specific type of VALUE but a simple definition as VALUE being an OPINION rather than a FACT would be enough.

Even Zillow refuses to use the word Value or Estimate in their number... Instead calling it a Zestimate.  Thats fine as it further differentiates the result from a real estimate or a professional opinion.

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RubberStamp

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Meatloaf


Even Zillow refuses to use the word Value or Estimate in their number... Instead calling it a Zestimate.  Thats fine as it further differentiates the result from a real estimate or a professional opinion.


Which is another touchy subject.  By changing the name it does not change what they are implying.  I'm really confused how the courts can wipe these guys free of liability when the premise is so confusing that the public treats it as fact and therefore there are real dollar implications for some people who then have no recourse.

I know my zestimate was $80k off...  and realizing that this is being used by consumers now I've fought it up to $40k off...  but I'm still not satisfied.

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We argue this: Meanwhile the agent's assistant just did 5 unofficial appraisal inspections they paired with a Zestimate and granted 90% LTV - all guaranteed no buy back.
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Bobby

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Quote:
Originally Posted by RubberStamp


Which is another touchy subject.  By changing the name it does not change what they are implying.  I'm really confused how the courts can wipe these guys free of liability when the premise is so confusing that the public treats it as fact and therefore there are real dollar implications for some people who then have no recourse.

I know my zestimate was $80k off...  and realizing that this is being used by consumers now I've fought it up to $40k off...  but I'm still not satisfied.



$$$$$$$$$$$$


When I now speak with borrowers, I speak in zestimation.  That way I can call bull if they say I have said something.

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Meatloaf

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Look... Its real simple.  Zillow has small print that no one reads... Much like we have small print that no one reads.  The problem is that the "public" sees what they want to see and disagrees with what they want to disagree with.  Kinda like the dude that appeals his taxes then tells you his house has to be worth more because the tax assessor has it at X.

The Zestimates and fully explained to the reader.... The problem is that the reader hasn't a clue what they are reading and are so stupid as to think that a computer that has never seen their house can accurately tell them what it is worth.



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RubberStamp

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Reply with quote  #13 
I kind of agree with you ML and always thought that supply and demand will ultimately win out.  More and more recently I've seen respected people, like John B, say they are making their offer at the Zestimate price.  

That is not good.  Especially if the market is not robust.  What it comes down to is this seems to be the starting point for negotiations these days so when homes like mine are still 40k off (for god knows what algorithm miscalculation - because the home across the street is half the size and almost the same zestimate) I'm taking action now rather than be screwed later. 

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We argue this: Meanwhile the agent's assistant just did 5 unofficial appraisal inspections they paired with a Zestimate and granted 90% LTV - all guaranteed no buy back.
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Meatloaf

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Quote:
Originally Posted by RubberStamp
I kind of agree with you ML and always thought that supply and demand will ultimately win out.  More and more recently I've seen respected people, like John B, say they are making their offer at the Zestimate price.  

That is not good.  Especially if the market is not robust.  What it comes down to is this seems to be the starting point for negotiations these days so when homes like mine are still 40k off (for god knows what algorithm miscalculation - because the home across the street is half the size and almost the same zestimate) I'm taking action now rather than be screwed later. 


What you are pointing out is the exact circumstance I predicted years ago with GCAP.  The more prevalent and accepted mass data becomes the less relevant the market becomes.

Instead of zillow estimating market value... now they are dictating market value.

Its kinda like kelly blue book.  People base car prices on what the book says and supposedly the book is based on actual market transactions.  Its a win win for KBB as the more market transactions happen the more their book value becomes relevant because the market transactions are based on their book value.

The same thing is happening in our industry.  

It doesn't mean that we will disappear... But the market may start to mimick the arbitrary indicators chosen by FNMA.


Look at our form.  There are 19 lines that FNMA feels is important.  In the vast majority of circumstances only about 5-6 of these variables are relevant.  Thats not to say that residential appraising can be boiled down to about 5-6 variables... The exact opposite is true, the number of variables is actually in the hundreds.  But because this is all that the machine sees then this will become all that is relevant.

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RubberStamp

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Reply with quote  #15 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Meatloaf


What you are pointing out is the exact circumstance I predicted years ago with GCAP.  The more prevalent and accepted mass data becomes the less relevant the market becomes.

Instead of zillow estimating market value... now they are dictating market value.

Its kinda like kelly blue book.  People base car prices on what the book says and supposedly the book is based on actual market transactions.  Its a win win for KBB as the more market transactions happen the more their book value becomes relevant because the market transactions are based on their book value.

The same thing is happening in our industry.  

It doesn't mean that we will disappear... But the market may start to mimick the arbitrary indicators chosen by FNMA.


Well they finally figured out that appraising is an art that can be best defined as a value range rather than an exact number.   The lenders are just now using the range behind closed doors.. 

And with that said Zillow is falling into the same trap.  Why not a zestimate value range rather than an exact number?

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We argue this: Meanwhile the agent's assistant just did 5 unofficial appraisal inspections they paired with a Zestimate and granted 90% LTV - all guaranteed no buy back.
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johnmbryant

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Reply with quote  #16 
What I actually said was:
  1. I would offer the Zestimate price if it were lower than the asking price
  2. I thought it was a reasonable price
  3. Use the Zestimate as the justification for my low offer
What I actually did was:
  1. Bought a new house for which there was no Zestimate
  2. Paid the full asking price
  3. Paid all my own closing costs
  4. Got a $60 concession (a light at the end of the driveway)
Zillow proved to be a very good MLS service.  We used it along with the local consumer MLS for about a year before we actually bought a house.  (Lynchburg, VA)
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RubberStamp

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Reply with quote  #17 
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnmbryant
What I actually said was:
  1. I would offer the Zestimate price if it were lower than the asking price
  2. I thought it was a reasonable price
  3. Use the Zestimate as the justification for my low offer
What I actually did was:
  1. Bought a new house for which there was no Zestimate
  2. Paid the full asking price
  3. Paid all my own closing costs
  4. Got a $60 concession (a light at the end of the driveway)
Zillow proved to be a very good MLS service.  We used it along with the local consumer MLS for about a year before we actually bought a house.  (Lynchburg, VA)


Exactly what most consumers are doing.  If the zestimate is lower then all feel emboldened to offer nothing higher.  It doesn't have to make sense..  but as a seller if you are under zestimated you have a real uphill battle that has real dollar implications.

I'm being proactive and fighting it now.  It looks like I got it up 20k so it is somewhat working but I'll need to see if my continual blast of facts bridges the gap. 

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We argue this: Meanwhile the agent's assistant just did 5 unofficial appraisal inspections they paired with a Zestimate and granted 90% LTV - all guaranteed no buy back.
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